As the 2025 NFL season approaches, analysts and fans alike are beginning to speculate on which players may experience a decline in touchdown production. In fact, historically, 50% of players scoring 14 or more TDs in a season see a decrease the next year. This pattern is something that has held true consistently over time. Considering this trend, a few notable players are projected to find the end zone less in 2025. This marks a dramatic southward turn from how they did in 2024.
Topping the charts is Ja’Marr Chase who caught a mind-boggling 18 touchdown passes in 2024. According to projections, he’s due for just 12 touchdowns in 2023. This dropoff is indicative of a larger trend we’ve noted over the past decade. That’s primarily because nearly 96% of players who scored 14 or more touchdowns regressed in their scoring the next season.
Yet another player in line for a major sophomore slump is Alec Pierce. After scoring 7 touchdowns in 2024, he is projected to see his scoring plummet to just 2 touchdowns in 2025. Jonnu Smith is very much a top-tier scoring TE with 8 last year. He’s likely to do it just 4 times this year. These declines are a reminder of just how volatile touchdown production can be. Even guys that have been just reasonably successful seem to wear down and can’t sustain their performance.
While he’s definitely a part of this discussion, he’s a little bit of a different case. Even after such a remarkable season with 20 touchdown produces in 2024, he remains even better than that, with a projection of 14 touchdowns in 2025. This indicates that while some players may experience a decline, Gibbs is expected to remain a key contributor to his team’s offense.
Following an insane 16 touchdown 2024, Mark Andrews is suddenly the focus of attention here. The expectation going into next season is more no-hitters and fewer points. His predicament is symptomatic of the anxieties that plague most high-draft or otherwise highly-regarded talents about to start a new campaign.
Tucker Kraft and Rashod Bateman are two more additions to the list of players expected to experience a decline rate in touchdowns for 2025. Kraft scored 7 times last season but is projected to drop to 4 touchdowns, while Bateman’s output of 8 touchdowns in 2024 could decrease as well.
I wouldn’t use 18 touchdowns this year for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Yet, in 2025 he’s projected for a mere 13 touchdowns, showcasing that regression gravity, particularly for those who are frequent visitors of the end zone. Players who have scored 10 or more touchdowns have seen an expected average drop of around -4.9 touchdowns. This daunting statistic really underscores the uphill battle that so many are fighting as they continue to try to do better or even live up to their previous glory.
Interestingly, specific players have defied this trend. Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane and Jordan Addison made constant headlines last fall. Despite these same obstacles, they either kept their touchdown totals steady year over year or, in some cases, even increased them. Their successes should be viewed as the case studies for how some players can escape the long-held, inevitable regression narrative.
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson all went on to become stars. As they enter the new season, they may be courting disaster by putting themselves in this trap of regression. Each of them has enjoyed a brilliant career. Based on historical data, they are likely to score less touchdowns than players of yesteryear at the same position.
The statistics reveal that approximately 81.3% of players who scored 10 or more touchdowns saw their totals decrease the following season. This number by itself is a warning sign to coaches and fantasy football players. In 2023, a cast of characters averaged 13 scores. Yet for 2024, they were projected to score fewer than eight touchdowns and ended up averaging a paltry 7.2 touchdowns.
James Cook’s story turns this narrative on its head. He had one of the biggest disparities between actual touchdowns and projected for 2024. This serves as a reminder that projections are sometimes not quite good enough to predict personal outcomes.
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