The NFL Draft is increasingly becoming a platform for elite quarterbacks and dynamic wide receivers. With all of these factors in play, the future is dim for the running back position. Even with the game’s evolution, the conversations about the running back position’s importance continue as franchises evaluate their worth. 52 — Ashton Jeanty, Boise State Heisman runner-up. He has emerged as the best all-around candidate, re-igniting chatter about taking a running back first overall.
At that point Nix, a tireless and well-respected analyst, makes the case for the philosophy of never passing on the best player available. This idea is in concert with what TDN has heard from various coaches and executives around the league. Five NFL teams have at least two running backs with 150 carries through the 2023 season. So far this year, however, none of these leading running backs have exceeded that mark. This now popular and successful trend has become a source of intrigue and fascination for scouts, coaches and players.
His impressive passing, combined with strong field awareness, caught the attention of Duke Tobin, the Bengals’ director of player personnel. This event represented a real turning point in the dialogue. He’s convinced Jeanty would be the perfect pick at No. 1 overall. Tobin was enthusiastic about how the game’s tides are turning. He pointed out that if a player like Walter Payton were in this draft class, he wouldn’t last past the top ten. He knew that a running back had to be something special. Only then can they make him worth such a lofty pick in modern day NFL.
“If Walter Payton were in this draft, I might think about taking him No. 1 overall. But our game’s changed a lot. So you’d have to be pretty special.” – Duke Tobin
Jeanty’s performance has led to well-deserved comparisons to prominent dual-threat running backs such as Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey. In 2023, he really proved how versatile he is, as he caught 43 passes for 569 yards and five touchdowns. He has the versatility to be an impactful weapon out of the backfield. As a pass-catcher, he brings incredible value to any offense.
Too many teams still chase after elite quarterbacks and receivers. According to some coaches, no player can be a bigger game-changer than a dynamic running back. Atlanta Falcons coach Raheem Morris emphasized that having a plus-2 margin in explosive plays equates to significant advantages on the field. He pointed out that tremendous difference-makers, such as Saquon Barkley, have shown that RBs can take over games and control results.
“We’ve just seen a running back [in Barkley] just take over our league last year and win the Super Bowl.” – Raheem Morris
This isn’t a new phenomenon, we’ve seen a change in the sentiment towards running backs in recent years, teams increasingly see them as replaceable assets. Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta stated that while some may see them as interchangeable, a truly exceptional running back cannot be easily substituted.
“I think they’re looked at as probably replaceable by some people. But if you’ve got a great one, if you’ve got a historic one, you can’t replace those guys.” – Eric DeCosta
This was true for just last year, where six players topped 300 carries. Fast forward to this season, Barkley and superstar Derrick Henry have been lighting it up after switching teams via free agency. In the NFL stage, their performances have helped to respark debates over the importance of the running back position in an age where analytics rule all.
He noted that drafts typically provide more terms at the running back position than elsewhere. He noted trends showing that teams shy away from spending high draft capital on the running back position. This reluctance is due to shifting views of the running back’s place in an offense.
“I think that’s a big reason why [teams have waited to draft running backs].” – Matt LaFleur
Though Jeanty is certainly cognizant of these changing dynamics, she remains hopeful for the future of the position. Kelly specifically commented on the potential return of running back value considering the recent output from this year’s top-tier talent at the position.
“It’s a great time to be coming into this league. I can see the value of running backs is definitely going to go back up. Definitely coming back in at a perfect time.” – Ashton Jeanty
Nonetheless, coaches will tell you exploitative plays are often game changers. Carolina Panthers coach Dave Canales highlighted that explosive plays are nearly equivalent to turnovers in terms of their victory correlation.
“Explosive plays are very close to the turnover margin. If you can (have a plus-2 margin) in explosives, over the years we’ve learned that almost equals getting a ball from the opponent. It’s really close in percentage in terms of leading to wins.” – Dave Canales
As discussions about Jeanty and his potential continue, one thing remains clear. The role of running backs is evolving but still holds vital importance in establishing a successful offense. As CJ Spiller pointed out the other day, offensive coordinators like balanced schemes too, and not just pass every play.
“Trust me, all offensive line coaches are not going to want to be in a five-man [pass] protection all game. And all offensive coordinators and head coaches that have an offensive background aren’t going to want to be throwing quick [passes] all game. They’re going to want to take some shots down the field.” – CJ Spiller
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