In the high-stakes world of the NFL playoffs, the bye week for the No. 1 seed is often considered a golden ticket to the Super Bowl. However, recent trends suggest this advantage may not be as beneficial as previously thought. Since the NFL expanded its playoff bracket to 14 teams in 2020, isolating the No. 1 seeds as the only recipients of a first-round bye, these top seeds have produced a playoff record of 11-7, a win percentage of just 61.1%. Highlighting this trend, teams such as the 2023 Ravens, 2021 Packers, 2021 Titans, and 2020 Packers all failed to reach the Super Bowl despite securing the coveted top perch.
The Kansas City Chiefs stand out as a notable exception to this pattern. They are the only team that has successfully turned a No. 1 seed into a Super Bowl victory under the league's new format, achieving this feat in both the 2019 and 2022 seasons. Meanwhile, divisional winners currently occupy the top four seeds in each conference, yet wild-card teams have demonstrated their prowess by holding better records in three of last weekend’s matchups.
The Tennessee Titans found themselves in an unusual position at the end of the 2021 season, holding the No. 1 seed after a decade-long struggle to win ten or more games. This achievement came under the leadership of coach Mike Vrabel, who guided the Titans to a combined 23 wins from 2020 to 2021. Despite this success, their journey ended short of Super Bowl glory, echoing the fate of other top-seeded teams in recent years.
The Chiefs' experience highlights the challenges and opportunities presented by a bye week. Head coach Andy Reid equates having a bye week to "essentially like winning a playoff game." This sentiment is shared by others within the organization who view it as an opportunity for "rest, recovery and not getting someone injured for the next game." With their veteran group and strong leadership, they aim to use this time effectively, adopting a mentality akin to that of a 7-seed to combat complacency.
"It's essentially like winning a playoff game," – A Chiefs source
The introduction of the expanded playoff bracket in the 2020 season has reshaped how teams approach postseason dynamics. While only the No. 1 seeds receive a bye, others must navigate through additional rounds, which some argue could sharpen their competitive edge. This perspective is supported by recent outcomes in other sports leagues. For instance, during the 2023 MLB playoffs, teams with first-round byes went 1-3 in divisional play, and both of the MLB's top seeds—the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles—were eliminated in their first series against wild-card opponents.
"Home-field advantage doesn't mean much once you kick it off," – A member of the Chiefs staff
This evolving landscape prompts critical discussions among teams about strategies and expectations. One executive from a team that once held a No. 1 seed described the playoff path as "a bloodbath," indicative of the fierce competition that awaits even those who start with an advantage.
"But that would be a bloodbath," – An executive from a team that once had a 1-seed
"It's rest, recovery and not getting someone injured for the next game. If you have a veteran group and the leadership to handle that well, it should work to your advantage." – A Chiefs source
In light of these challenges, setting clear goals remains crucial for teams aspiring to secure top seeds. As Campbell noted, "You try to set yourself up the best you can and that's why you put these goals out there." Achieving these objectives requires sustained focus and adaptability as each season presents its unique demands.
"You try to set yourself up the best you can and that's why you put these goals out there," – Campbell
"So, yeah, it's been there for a while, so certainly this is something we want to do and we've had on our minds — division and 1-seed and all that, and it's right here in our hands." – Campbell
The Chiefs' strategy during weeks following a bye week involves maintaining a mindset and approach reflective of lower-seeded teams. This approach emphasizes core principles intended to prevent complacency and enhance performance.
"It's a learned experience, or unique to our situation each year — every year has different needs." – A team source
"We've tried to hammer those out, continue to do that until we find out what the results are Sunday night," – Reid
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