Sean Payton, the new head coach of the Denver Broncos, came up with his own secret recipe for how to rank quarterback prospects. His main concern is reducing negative plays relative to overall dropbacks. This technique can provide a fuller image of a quarterback’s impact on a game via statistics like sack rate, fumble percentage, interception percentage, and even completion percentage. Payton’s Ready For The 2024 NFL Draft As the Broncos prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft, Payton is going all in on extensive analysis. He’s particularly zeroed in on the top three prospects – Oregon’s Bo Nix, Caleb Williams from USC, North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
Payton’s formula is straightforward yet effective. He calculates the rate of negative plays—sacks, fumbles, and interceptions—against the total dropbacks to derive an average that reflects a quarterback’s efficiency. By assessing these numbers, he can better understand how a player performs under pressure and their overall reliability in game situations.
In college, none of those Bo Nix 942 passing attempts. On those attempts, he was sacked 69 times, fumbled 14 times, and was intercepted 16 times. His QB rating was 122.6, his completion percentage was 64.5%, and he averaged 10.5 yards per attempt. All together, these numbers tell the story of a rookie who dealt with considerable adversity and still managed to showcase some impressive talents.
Caleb Williams on the same 735 attempts had even harsher pressures with 83 sacks – a staggering 11.2% of his dropbacks. He had 32 fumbles, or 4.4%, and he threw 14 picks, which is 1.9%. Williams had a position-best 66.9% completion percentage and an unbelievable 17.5 yards per attempt. At the same time, for Drake Maye, those numbers are 1,349 with 68 sacks (5%), 14 fumbles (1%) and 29 interceptions (2.1%). Maye’s completion percentage was even lower at 63.5%, leading to an average of just 8.1 yards per attempt.
J.J. McCarthy figures into the evaluation with an average of 7.8 yards per attempt, but it is Nix who has caught Payton’s attention for his potential within the Broncos’ system.
Payton forbids a cavalier, seat-of-the-pants attitude to quarterback evaluations. He usually gives each visitor a detailed 17-page packet of offensive templates the evening before their visit. This gives him an opportunity to assess not just their football IQ but their ability to process and react to detailed game plans.
I want to see the As and the Fs Payton said, stressing the need to know the good and the bad on a player in the evaluation process.
In assessing his options for the draft, Payton has met with both Caleb Williams and Drake Maye out of due diligence. He has expressed a strong belief in Bo Nix’s current potential as well as his fit for what the Broncos need moving forward.
“I don’t give a f
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