Leicester City’s dismal season in the Premier League continued as they suffered their tenth defeat in eleven games, falling 2-0 to West Ham United. This loss has left Leicester on a trajectory to potentially set a new unwanted record for points in a single season, as they now aim to finish with just 13 points—two points shy of Derby County's infamous record of 11 points set in the 2007/08 season.
The current landscape of the Premier League indicates a troubling trend for newly promoted teams. In a stark reflection of the challenges faced, Leicester, Southampton, and Ipswich Town are all struggling significantly. Southampton has lost nine of their previous ten matches, while Ipswich has managed to win only one of their last seven games. Such performances have raised concerns about the survival prospects for these teams.
Historically, the average points required to avoid relegation has changed dramatically over the past three decades. The five-year rolling average for points needed to stay in the Premier League has dropped by 21%. Currently, clubs need approximately 30 points to secure their place in the top tier. However, if the three promoted teams continue on their current paths, this season could witness the lowest average survival rate since records began, should all three face relegation.
The implications for Southampton are particularly severe. They are on track to potentially break the unwanted record for the worst performance in Premier League history, previously held by Derby County. Should they fail to improve, their season could conclude with a historically low combined total of just 61 points among all three relegated teams. This figure would surpass last season's record set by the relegated trio.
Since the 1996/97 season, statistics reveal that it was common for two or more promoted sides to avert relegation. However, this trend has changed significantly after the 2013/14 season, reflecting a more challenging environment for newcomers. A recent analysis has shown that if all three promoted teams were to drop out of the Premier League this year, it would mark an unprecedented occurrence.
The ongoing plight of these clubs signals broader challenges within the league. The promoted teams’ struggles are not only about individual performance but also illustrate the shifting dynamics of Premier League football. As clubs invest heavily in talent and resources to compete, newly promoted sides often find it increasingly difficult to establish themselves.
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