As the NFL season approaches Week 4, anticipation is palpable. Like teams, fantasy football players are closely monitoring player efficiencies and performances on the field. David Njoku has had a huge impact on increasing the diversity of the Cleveland Browns offense, having played 82% of snaps. On the other side, his compatriot Harold Fannin has played on-field for 66% of snaps so far this year. Even with these contributions, the Cleveland offense ranks 30th in expected points added (EPA) on the season and has struggled to produce overall amidst their passing attack.
Future games show different likelihoods for wins throughout the league. The Houston Texans survive as the week’s strongest team, with a 76% win probability, the fifth strongest of the week. At the same time, the Los Angeles Chargers have an overwhelming 78% chance to win, putting them in fourth. The expected matchups feature over/under lines that imply a lot of it will be scored. It doesn’t make sense for one of those games to be set at 38.5, the 15th highest on the slate, while another is at 44, the 10th highest.
Cleveland’s Offensive Struggles
Regardless of David Njoku’s historically high snap count, this Browns team has found it nearly impossible to get into an offensive groove. Yet ranked dead last in the league in EPA, they have issues turning chances into touchdowns. Njoku, currently ranked 12th among tight ends, is performing well but may need additional support from his teammates to improve the team’s overall performance.
Harold Fannin’s participation in 66% of snaps shows the coaching staff’s faith in him. Unfortunately, even with great minutes, the production has in turn not resulted in high per game scoring for the team. The continued struggles of Cleveland’s offense shed light on a key area of concern as they get ready for a pivotal week ahead including their next two games.
“If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet.” – Michael Rothstein and Shwetha Surendran
High Stakes for Other Teams
The Texans and Chargers aren’t even the only ones enjoying favorable win probabilities. Additionally, the San Francisco 49ers boast a very solid 63% win prob — good for eighth this week. For teams looking to capitalize on scoring opportunities, several games present high over/under lines that could lead to exciting matchups.
One game this week features an over/under of 48.2, the fourth highest among the scheduled games, which could suggest a high-scoring affair. We have another game with an over/under of 45.3, which ranks as the seventh highest on the slate. These figures suggest that fantasy footballers should consider these matchups when constructing rosters.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in an impossible spot this week. With a win probability of just 51%, they’re the league’s worst team. With an over/under set at 37.7—the lowest of any game—scoring expectations are very low.
Fantasy Football Implications
For fantasy football enthusiasts, being informed about snap counts and player rankings can help take their game to the next level. David Njoku currently sits as the 12th tight end and has been a rock-solid option. Another contender is hot on his trail in 19th, and they’re only five points back. This closeness shows that competition is still very intense within fantasy lineups.
As players strategize for their upcoming matchups, it is essential to consider both individual performances and the overall efficiency of their respective teams. This week’s data indicates that despite the great talent on an individual basis, the lack of team cohesiveness can hurt their fantasy output.
“Why Chase Brown is no longer a top RB in fantasy.” – Mike Clay
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