The 2023 NFL season has featured an unprecedented amount of quarterback movement, leading to impressive debuts and underwhelming disappointments. This article examines the situations of four key quarterbacks—Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, and Geno Smith—and evaluates their impacts on their new teams, contractual situations, and future prospects.
Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold has had a huge impact on the Seattle Seahawks this season after joining the team this year. The Seahawks shipped Geno Smith out and added Darnold in free agency, and so far he’s been overall what they hoped he would be. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones has played exceptionally well for the Indianapolis Colts, leading them to a 5-1 record this season and generating discussions about a potential contract extension. His performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers raises serious questions about Aaron Rodgers’ longevity in the league. On the other hand, Geno Smith, for now, can’t stop throwing picks.
Sam Darnold’s Breakout Season
With Darnold’s move to Seattle clearly working out thus far. He is ranked third among QBs with a quarterback rating (QBR) of 75. His performance suggests that last season’s breakout in Minnesota was neither a fluke nor solely attributed to coaching by Kevin O’Connell.
Ultimately, the Seahawks are happy with what Darnold has brought to the table since arriving. But more importantly, he’s proven himself as one of the best orchestrators of offensive drives as always been the most important aspect of what makes Atlanta’s offense tick. Darnold’s performance will be crucial for Seattle, as the Seahawks find themselves in one of the most competitive divisions in football.
“I told coach [Pete Carroll] I need to go jump in the lake, or ocean or something.” – Ryan McFadden
Looking past this year, there is an 80% chance of Darnold remaining with the Seahawks through 2026. This stability would allow him to continue to hone his craft and lock in his status as the team’s franchise quarterback for years to come.
Daniel Jones’s Ascendance in Indianapolis
Nobody has improved his game more than Daniel Jones, who now leads the entire NFL in QBR. His yards per attempt have risen from a career average of 6.6 to an eye-popping 8.3 this season. The Colts’ surprise play—sitting at 5-1 and in the AFC playoff picture—has raised eyebrows, and speculation has shifted to a contract extension for Jones.
Jones currently plays under a one-year contract worth $14 million, which could exceed $18 million if he meets all performance incentives. Given his outstanding performance, the Colts may seriously consider extending his contract before he enters free agency at the end of the year.
It hasn’t been all rainbows and unicorns for Jones. He has had multiple fumbles lost over a three-game span this season. Luckily for the Colts, both fumbles were recovered by them to keep the momentum rolling.
Jones’ chances of sticking with the Colts until 2026 is 80%. His progress in surrounding talent since his days in New York has been rewarded. In one year surrounded by this different style of learning, he is flourishing and growing in ways I never imagined.
Aaron Rodgers’, for example, his one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers that he signed last June. So far, early signs are pointing to this experiment being a success! The statistical reality is that Rodgers is dead last in air yards per attempt at a meager 5.3 yards. Steelers’ playmakers have taken over the league! They rank 2nd in the NFL, averaging 7.3 yards after the catch per reception, which highlights their emphasis on the short passing game and YAC opportunities.
Rodgers himself has already hinted that this season will be his last.
“I’ve basically said this will be my final year.” – Aaron Rodgers
This significant admission by Tomlin leads anyone to question what this means for his future with the Steelers past this season. Rodgers’ chances of sticking around with Pittsburgh past 2026 are minimal — odds of that happening sit at just 5% right now. As he heads into the last chapter of his career, every one of the fans and analysts will look closely to him. They are hopeful to see how he plays in this dynamic.
Geno Smith’s Struggles
Unlike Darnold and Jones, Geno Smith has struggled since going to Seattle. As it stands now, he has thrown ten interceptions in just six games. This concerning statistic does not bode well for his efficiency as a starting quarterback as well as his ability to bounce back into form.
Smith’s long-term future with his current team is unclear, but Smith has better than even odds of being there through 2026. His performance will likely determine whether he can secure a longer tenure or if he will find himself searching for another opportunity elsewhere.
While he lamented on his difficulties, there are some bad luck-related factors playing into Smith’s rough operation.
“It’s just a lot of bad-luck stuff happening to me, but I’m in control of that.” – Ryan McFadden
Smith is clearly eager to find his swagger back and put up better numbers. To do that, he needs to cut down on the errors and improve his overall football IQ and judgment in-game.
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