As the NFL playoffs approach, teams and players are gearing up for intense matchups, with several intriguing dynamics set to unfold on the field. In a noteworthy pattern since 2002, first-time playoff starters have struggled against their more experienced counterparts, posting a 19-38 record straight up and a 19-37-1 record against the spread. This trend may influence betting odds and predictions as fans and analysts prepare for wild card weekend.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a formidable defense, particularly against the run. With their defensive line at full strength, the Buccaneers rank sixth in success rate and second in EPA per rush, presenting a significant challenge for any opposing offense. Their ability to stifle run plays could be pivotal in their playoff performance.
The Los Angeles Chargers are set to utilize Justin Herbert's mobility in their upcoming game. Designed carries are expected to be part of his game plan, potentially adding a dynamic element to the Chargers' offense. Meanwhile, wide receiver Cooper Kupp has seen a decline in his production, averaging over 1.6 yards per route run in only one of his last six games. This dip in performance is something the Rams will be keen to address.
The Houston Texans present a unique case with their run defense, which has allowed -191 rushing yards over expectation against running backs. Despite this strength, they have struggled against quarterbacks on the ground, allowing 6.7 yards per carry—the worst in the NFL. This discrepancy could be pivotal in their upcoming playoff matchups.
On the other hand, the Chargers are permitting 30% of carries to exceed rushing yards expectations, a statistic bettered by only seven defenses in the league. This vulnerability might be exploited by playoff opponents looking to gain an edge.
Jayden Daniels, noted for his elite athleticism, maintains an impressive scramble rate of 11.8% this season. His agility could lead to significant plays, as evidenced by his highest scramble rate of 21.2% against the Buccaneers earlier this year. A big run from Daniels could be crucial in shifting the momentum of a game.
In Buffalo, the Bills’ running backs are anticipated to play a significant role as pass catchers against a Broncos defense known for its man coverage and aggressive blitzes. Ty Johnson stands out as a potential key player if available, potentially exploiting these defensive tendencies.
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