With the NFL Draft fast approaching, analysts are looking to new metrics to predict the long-term success of edge rushers. One particularly impactful tool was SackSEER, created by Nathan Forster. This complex statistical model calculates a prospect’s sack efficiency on a per-game basis. It includes statistical adjustments for things like early draft entry, as well as switching positions in the course of their collegiate careers.
SackSEER was instrumental in creating a baseline for the evaluation of edge rushers drafted from 1998 to 2020. It gives us the best sense of their future performance for their first five professional seasons. Looking ahead, the projections from this model shine a light on some of the most dominant prospects in this year’s draft.
Among the highest-rated edge rushers in this year’s class, Burch takes the cake with a projected 28.0 total sacks in a five-year career. That stunning prediction counts him among the best of the best talent projected to make an instant splash in the NFL. Next up is Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson, whose Being an Edge projection is equally impressive at 25.2 sacks over the next seven years. These numbers paint a picture that indicates both players have the chops to take their college game and put it on display at the next level.
Green is next with a five-year projection of 19.6 sacks. In addition, he creates tremendous pressure on the QB. That one punch move alone could earn him a starting job on any defense looking to improve its pass rush. So far Pearce and Williams look promising. Prospect wise, they both are on pace to produce 19.3 and 23.9 sacks respectively, which would make them major difference makers on their future squads.
Carter could end up a notch or two lower, with a projection of 16.1 sacks. Nonetheless, he is still a talented commodity for teams who covet edge rushing talent. This year’s competition talent pool exceeded all expectations, displaying extraordinary and diverse skills. Teams are still doing their due diligence on prospects to find those who will best fit their defensive schemes.
While the SackSEER model accounts for both early entry and position changes, it’s a more detailed look at just how these prospects have dominated at the collegiate level. By taking these variables into account, it is an immensely valuable tool. That goes a long way to gauge how they will adjust to the NFL’s challenges.
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