LeBron James, renowned for his stellar career spanning over two decades, is encountering an unusual streak of misfortune this NBA season. Despite his well-documented impact on the court, various metrics reveal that James is currently facing unprecedented challenges, particularly in relation to 3-point shooting luck. The Los Angeles Lakers, the team he has led since 2018, have experienced a peculiar pattern when James is on the floor, affecting his overall player ratings and team performance.
According to BBall Index's LEBRON metric, James ranks as the 26th-best player in the league this season. However, a "luck adjustment" propels him up to the 16th spot, highlighting the impact of external factors beyond his control. This season marks the first time that James has recorded a negative on/off split on offense, with the Lakers scoring more efficiently in his absence.
The Second Spectrum tracking data underscores the Lakers' struggles from beyond the arc when James is present. They are making fewer 3-pointers during his time on the court, leading to a 3-point "luck score" of negative-10.3%. This unfavorable trend has resulted in an estimated loss of 263 points from 3-point luck alone this season, a stark deviation from James' usual fortunes.
The Lakers' recent matchup against the Mavericks exemplified this anomaly. In James' 37 minutes on the court, the Lakers were outscored by five points. Conversely, during his 11 minutes off the bench, they managed to outscore the Mavericks by 13 points. The discrepancy is further reflected in Cleaning the Glass statistics, which show a 4.2% decline in the Lakers' 3-point shooting percentage when James plays, while opponents improve their shooting by 6.1 percentage points.
Moreover, opponents are making 37.0% of their 3-point attempts when James is on the court, positioning them at 27th in the league for opponent shooting accuracy. When James is off the court, this figure plummets to just 32.0%, underscoring an unusual defensive discrepancy. The Lakers are also contesting more shots (51% of opponent attempts) with him on the floor compared to 46% when he is not playing.
Despite these challenges, James and Anthony Davis continue to exhibit synergy on the court, yielding a plus-9.4 net rating, ranked in the 88th percentile of leaguewide lineups. Nonetheless, James' minus-0.8 net rating is significantly lower compared to the team's plus-8.4 net rating when he sits out games.
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