J.J. McCarthy, the Minnesota Vikings’ promising quarterback, has encountered a series of challenges in his first season as a starter. Over the course of the season, he’s flashed immense upside, but still understandably struggles with a myriad of issues he needs to work on. As he navigates these hurdles, head coach Kevin O’Connell emphasizes the importance of experience as a fundamental aspect of McCarthy’s development.
Though returning from a common high right ankle sprain, McCarthy has only hit the field for four games this season. His mobility has turned out to be important too, as he’s scrambled 14 times for 60 yards and a score. While these are positive strides, he still has a long way to go in important game situations, especially on third down.
In nine dropback attempts on third-and-1 or third-and-2, McCarthy has yet to make something happen to pick up a first down. He’s only even tried five passes in these situations (0-for-5 passing with three sacks taken). From there, he scrambled for 14 yards, moving the chains in those clutch seconds. His body of work on third downs remains a source of worry. The Vikings are the current NFL leaders in third-and-short passing attempts with a two-plus seasons rate of 61.2% (2022-2024).
Even with the struggles in these particular situations, McCarthy has shown immense upside as a passer. He boasts the highest average air yards per throw at 10.1 among the 46 NFL quarterbacks who have started at least one game this season. Overall, his QBR is 26.8, which is good for dead last in his cohort. Furthermore, his percentage of attempts off-target stands at 22.1%, placing him equally low among all league players.
One thing O’Connell agrees on is that McCarthy needs to get his “reps” as a play caller.
“Part of the growth and development is we’ve got to let him play a little bit,” – O’Connell
The Vikings’ strategy reflects their confidence in McCarthy’s abilities. During a recent matchup with the Detroit Lions, McCarthy threw an important 16-yard back-shoulder pass. This fourth-down conversion play to receiver Jalen Nailor on third-and-5 sealed an exhilarating 27-24 upset win. This play showcased the best of his ability to operate when things break down, though in spite of his struggles all around.
McCarthy’s own acknowledgement is that you can’t replicate experience and that’s what he needs to truly blossom as a quarterback.
“I feel like the greatest learning tool for anybody, regardless of position, regardless of profession, is experience,” – McCarthy
As the season goes on, McCarthy’s accuracy has severely declined. Particularly in the fourth quarter, where 40% of his attempts have been off-target. This trend begs the question of his capacity to keep cool as well as detailed during intense clutch stretches.
As for the long game, O’Connell remains hopeful of McCarthy’s development. When he does struggle, he thinks they’re just all part of the regular learning curve for a young quarterback.
“I just think it’s all normal, in my opinion,” – O’Connell
He mentioned how having a dependable target to throw to makes their opportunities in high-leverage situations that much better.
“Best receiver in football in a one-on-one with a run call you feel good about on fourth-and-1,” – O’Connell
McCarthy’s numbers mostly just point to how little we’ve done on the race front. His ability to adapt and learn from each game will be pivotal for his growth. As he grows and matures, the Vikings franchise is focused on ensuring that he has the best support possible as he goes through these life-shaping experiences.
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