Beyond the gridiron, this matchup is a historic moment for both franchises. Yet, nobody expected this, as the Pacers opened the season with incredible 20-1 odds to win the East. That ranking put them sixth-best in the whole league, according to ESPN BET. If anyone ever had low expectations, these kids did, yet they’ve proven those odds are meant to be broken. Behind that powerful 50-32 record and plus-2.2 point differential, they cruised to the fourth seed in the East. At the same time, the Thunder have played the best of any team during the entire playoffs, making their run to the Finals a special one.
This matchup is historic in many ways — most notably in terms of pace and the sheer individual talent that will be on display. The 2024 NBA Finals would translate to an average of 93.0 possessions per team per game. This indicates that the teams are more comfortable playing an up-tempo, free-flowing game. This Finals represents a historic moment. For the first time in the period since implementation of the luxury tax, neither team is a taxpayer, a testament to the clever dances both franchises have performed. A key storyline will be the face-off between two All-NBA point guards: Tyrese Haliburton of the Pacers and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder. This pairing together — the Speakers, the House of Representatives — is historic! It’s the first time in a decade that two All-NBA point guards will matchup on the Finals stage since Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving did battle.
Indiana Pacers: Rising to Unexpected Heights
Coming into the season with low aspirations, Indiana has far surpassed them in stunning fashion. This franchise’s path to the Finals has been nothing short of extraordinary. And with preseason odds of 50-1 to win it all, most analysts had buried them in the first weeks of the season. Plenty of strategic gameplay coupled with individual standout performances have contributed to their success thus far.
Holding it all together in this offensive renaissance has been their stellar three-point shooting. Fourth, the Pacers are shooting an efficiency-busting 40% from 3, the best long-ball percentage of all 16 playoff teams. This skillset provides them with a clear competitive edge. They can stretch defenses with the threat of their perimeter game and create scoring opportunities for teammates both inside and outside. Notably, Tyrese Haliburton, despite being the only starting player below 40% in three-point accuracy, remains pivotal in facilitating plays and setting up teammates for open shots.
Haliburton’s performance may have made people take a double-take when they saw how he did against the Thunder. He’s been more passive than aggressive against Oklahoma City’s big guards, shutting down his path to the paint before he even gets a chance. He averages just 10.2 field goal attempts per game against them, the second-fewest he has against any opponent. So, if anything, this indicates that he should be playing more aggressively. Through four games, this is the only shooting foul Haliburton has drawn. He’ll have to learn how to draw fouls and do more damage on the offensive end.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Defensive Prowess on Display
And then there are the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have made the leap to being one of the league’s elite defenses this postseason. Their defense gives up 3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other squad. This outstanding figure speaks to their effectiveness at shutting down the other teams’ attacks. This defensive strength comes from intentional decisions. Maybe it’s the deliberate plan to stop opponents at the hoop, even if that comes with more long-range shots taking pinballs bouncing off their players.
Though they have been very successful defensively overall, one glaring hole in their defense has been found in their three-point defense. This potentially is a problem going up against a high scoring team like the Pacers who have really been successful with the long-range shot. The Thunder may well have to look for ways to shore up their perimeter defense without fully sacrificing what it allows them to do elsewhere.
The focal point of the team’s defense is a clear signifier of their desire to keep running the pace for an entire series. The Thunder have shown no hesitation at all to push the tempo, and it’s a fundamental piece of their broader game plan. They are not going to want to keep this pace up with a Pacers team that thrives in transition.
A Clash of Titans: Haliburton vs. Gilgeous-Alexander
Even among the plethora of talent on display, perhaps the most scintillating aspect of this Finals matchup will be the showdown between Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Each player is a key to their respective teams. With their special abilities, they can turn the tide of battle in favor of their team.
Haliburton’s playmaking abilities and vision have been central to Indiana’s success this season. Given that his primary role as a facilitator puts his teammates in positions to score, he becomes dangerous by being a scoring option himself. His recent alarming passivity when faced with aggressive defenses begs to question what he’d look like in high-pressure, cut-throat situations. He has to be the right mix of enabler and tough guy. This approach will be key for him to steer the Pacers in the right direction.
Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as an offensive force for the Thunder. He’s able to exert his will over games at any time that his team needs him to do so. His ability to penetrate defenses and finish at the rim continues to be a big part of his game and has been coupled with improved accuracy from three. As both players carry All-NBA accolades into this series, fans can expect an exciting showdown reminiscent of past Finals matchups featuring elite point guards.
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