Recent analysis of the performance of Premier League teams in relation to their European commitments has sparked a debate about whether playing in Europe detrimentally affects domestic form. It’s a commonly held belief among fans and pundits that taking part in European competitions negatively impacts league play. In fact, data indicates that this perception is more fantasy than fact.
The statistics reveal an intriguing picture. Since the 2010/11 season, Premier League teams have averaged just 1.76 points per game in the follow up to European fixtures. This is just shy of the 1.79 points per game they score in non-playoff games. That subtle difference speaks to bigger questions about how much European competition should affect success at home.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa Thrives After European Matches
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have been excellent at bouncing back after their Europa League fixtures this season. In addition, it’s the first time the squad has won five games immediately following their appearances in continental competitions.
The metrics tell the story of how impressive Aston Villa has been this season. The club’s points-per-game average has increased by an astonishing 167% in matches following European engagements. Their sublime progression is a testimony to the fact that they have cracked the conundrum of adapting to the demands of domestic and continental football.
What’s more, Aston Villa’s performance is exceptional even compared to other clubs with similar level of investment. This season, their remarkable +100% positive difference in points per game following Champions League matches puts them third on the list of all Premier League clubs since 2010/11. In doing so, they underscore the remarkable achievement that is their European adventure.
Challenges Faced by Other Teams
Crystal Palace have been abysmal following European games. The manager and players face increasing pressure after a disappointing return of just one win from six Premier League matches after their European exertions this campaign. After these fixtures, they average a paltry 0.8 points per game. This statistic of grasping tightly to one’s family is an abysmal statistic compared to the 2.1 points they get in other rounds.
Oliver Glasner, manager at Crystal Palace, was critical of his club’s lack of effort to improve their squad over the summer transfer window. He thinks this absence of positive reinforcement has played a huge part in their ongoing woes.
“We missed [the chance] to strengthen the depth of the squad in summer, and we knew the schedule, we knew that Ismaila [Sarr] would go to AFCON. Nothing happened, surprisingly,” – Oliver Glasner
This is similar to last season’s woes. As wins go, coming straight after two tough Champions League matches, Palace’s fourth win in eleven games this season marked an ominous trend for the club.
The Broader Context of Premier League Performances
Aston Villa and Crystal Palace illustrate the different directions teams can go. Fellow Premier League clubs have found returning from Europe tough going this season. Teams such as Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United thrive in the wake of their European outings. They always lead in points-per-game averages in those scenarios.
On the flip side of the coin are clubs such as Chelsea and Arsenal, both massively underachieving. Their recent 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge followed Champions League victories over formidable opponents, emphasizing the inconsistency in form that some teams face after European matches.
Some statistical nuggets indicate that, statistically speaking, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool are two of the worst points-per-game teams in the league. Their performances plummeted when asked to play beyond the European match-ups. Chelsea and Arsenal provide a real-world test case to this whole debate. Their experiences go a long way towards demonstrating the dangerous effect that European commitments can have on league performance.
Some of these clubs are really struggling. The direction of travel is very much against the idea that European competition is harmful to Premier League performance. European competition is killing you is clearly the myth here.
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