England’s cricket team finds itself in a precarious position following the first two Tests of the Ashes series against Australia. Yet these defeats have been disastrous for their campaigns. They now face the brutal truth of this being the 17th occasion since the Second World War where they have lost the first two Tests of an Ashes campaign. The historical specter still hangs heavily as they try for a return with a batting .188/.302/.254 triple slash that doesn’t provide much comfort.
England have solely batted for 219.1 overs in the two Tests combined. They moved at an average of only 22.7 runs per wicket as Australia scored at 38.2 runs per wicket. This marked contrast in the output sharpens the reality of the challenges before the English top order. England have shown flashes of potential like the 96-run stand between Ben Stokes and Will Jacks. Those moments of magic find a way to come through. These long tales of downward-dragging, consistently underwhelming lower order often cloud and drag down those overall stories. As an example, Brussels-based Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse had 78 runs scored off their eight wickets taken with 91 balls bowled.
The team’s overall scoring rate in the series has been extremely poor, at just 3.79 runs per over. This worrying statistic drives home just how hard it is for them to build any momentum against a strong Australian bowling attack. Typically, England find it very hard to recover from being two-nil down in an Ashes series. Never have they gone on to achieve such a close escape as three wickets once before. The way things stand now, their capacity to successfully come back from the dead is in serious doubt.
Nine Tests into the summer, one of the rare bright spots for England has been its spin attack. After the first two matches, England’s spinners have taken more wickets than their Australian counterparts down under. Such an inclination would provide England with a crucial tactical advantage in the pool matches to come. This is especially promising, because spin is an incredibly important factor in Australian conditions.
Even with these glimmers of hope England’s batting troubles have not gone away. Bowled out in fewer than 80 overs across the first four innings of an Ashes series since 2005, this has happened only one time. This pattern marks a discouraging trend across multiple early collapses. This pattern of play hampers their ability to rebound like never before. Consequently, they are still playing through the first three or four punches they’ve taken in this series.
Down the order, skipper Ben Stokes leads a dangerously-exciting top six, having both collective and individual recent experience of getting within touching distance of incredible, insurmountable feats. Now they find themselves battling not only history, but the odds, as laid out by the data. It is no surprise then that in their previous ten Ashes tours, all but two teams have come to Australia and lost the first two Tests. This adds additional weight on Stokes and his team to perform miracles.
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