The Circa Sports Survivor Contest wrapped up an exhilarating season on Sunday, crowning eight winners who will share the substantial prize pool of $14,266,000. This season has been monumental for NFL betting enthusiasts, with favorites outperforming expectations and setting new records. As the Buffalo Bills prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens as 1-point home favorites, the betting landscape continues to capture the attention of fans and sportsbooks alike.
Throughout the 2024 regular season, favorites emerged victorious against the spread (ATS) with a record of 144-127 (.531), marking the second consecutive winning season for favorites ATS. This trend has sparked discussions among analysts and bettors, with some considering it a testament to the accuracy of oddsmakers in setting lines.
"It's a weird situation," said John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
The Buffalo Bills, favored for 42 consecutive home games—the longest active streak in the NFL—enter their upcoming match against the Ravens with high expectations. The line settled back with Buffalo as a 1-point favorite on Sunday night, underscoring their consistent performance on home turf.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans ended their season with a dismal 2-15 (.118) record against the spread, setting the worst ATS record by any team in the Super Bowl era. According to Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, this outcome was anticipated due to their low rating.
"Caesars had the Titans rated quite low, so their performance was not a real surprise," Mucklow explained. "However, as a sportsbook, we look for parity in the spread, and the Titans offered trend bettors good value throughout the year, even when we thought we had set the line at the extreme."
In contrast, home teams demonstrated dominance by going 4-0 straight-up and against the spread ahead of Sunday’s prime-time clash between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Denver Broncos also delivered a standout performance, securing a decisive 38-0 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. This marked their first time being favored over the Chiefs since 2017 and solidifies their playoff ambitions.
As ESPN BET reported, Jackson garnered the largest ticket share on the final day of the regular season, accumulating 21.9% of bets. The anticipation builds as the Texans gear up to kick off the 2024 NFL playoffs as three-point home underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Historically, underdogs have proven resilient in playoff scenarios. Since 2017, underdogs boast a 24-12 record against the spread and are 16-20 outright in wild-card rounds. This dynamic adds intrigue to playoff predictions and strategies.
"We think they are the two best teams in the NFL," John Murray commented on the Bills and Ravens matchup.
Interestingly, only three NFL playoff games in the Super Bowl era have closed with a pick 'em line in ESPN's database. The last instance occurred during a wild-card matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles in 2019.
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