And as Champions League 2025/26 goes down, Anfield makes its case that Liverpool is the clear favorite to win it all. They have a stellar 20.4 percent likelihood of winning. Closely behind are Arsenal, at a 14.5 percent chance of taking it all. The round of 16 is the tournament format’s biggest disparity. The eight best teams after Matchday 8 will qualify automatically, while teams placing 9th-24th will enjoy a fascinating two-leg playoff round to determine which clubs can continue on into the European competition.
Liverpool’s lofty perch is enhanced even further by their abysmal competition choice, most notably their 95.3 percent chance of making the round of 16. The LIWFC squad has demonstrated incredible grit and tenacity throughout the year, making them one of the toughest teams to face during this exciting season. Following closely behind is Arsenal, with a 93.6 percent likelihood of making it to the knockout stage. It’s indicative of their competitive spirit and just how dominant they were in the group stages.
Manchester City and Chelsea’s Challenges
Manchester City are the fifth-favorites to win the Champions League as they trail Liverpool and Arsenal. It’s 8.6 percent likely to win the championship. This season marks a huge shift for the squad. They’re all in on returning to the top of Europe’s elite clubs. Despite their previous successes, City must navigate through a challenging group stage to secure a place in the knockout rounds.
Chelsea truly are on the back foot with just a 7.3 percent chance of winning the title. The team hasn’t fully hit its stride though, which may come back to bite the team as the tournament goes on and even during knockout play. Both Manchester City and Chelsea will need to capitalize on their upcoming matches to enhance their prospects and avoid elimination from the tournament.
Newcastle and Tottenham’s Position
That Newcastle United could have a greater-than-5th shot at a Premier League finish. This year, they come into the competition with just 3.2 percent chance of winning. Still, they have certainly shown great promise in domestic play. The Champions League is a whole different beast that will challenge their depth and experience.
Tottenham Hotspur, surprisingly enough, is rated thirteenth overall, with a meager 1.2 percent chance of lifting the trophy. Their entry into the tournament as Europa League winners adds pressure to perform at a higher level against Europe’s best. Spurs’ lowly standing is indicative of their early season form, with much work needed if they are to progress beyond the group stages.
The tournament’s format ensures that teams finishing in the bottom twelve are entirely eliminated without an opportunity to transition into the Europa League. This rule amplifies the stakes for all participating clubs, as they vie for a spot in the coveted knockout rounds.
Progression to Knockouts
Teams will need to strive for sixteen points from eight matches to guarantee advancement through the round of 16. This benchmark has failed to guarantee a top-eight finish only three times in its long history. As Matchday 8 looms, clubs are more plugged in than ever knowing that each and every match is critical in deciding either glory or doom.
Only the top eight teams will advance directly, giving them a huge competitive edge in the knockout stage. The 9th through 24th place teams will go head-to-head in important two-legged play-in matches. Only half of them can earn the opportunity to keep their European campaign alive.
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