Now, as the NFL season enters its sixth week, 16 teams are still in the mix for NFL playoff berths. Yet, each one of these favorites has its own flaws that could derail their hopes of making the postseason. Whether defensive weaknesses or offensive execution struggles, identifying and comprehending these flaws is of utmost importance to fans and analysts alike. So this article looks at the most important storylines for a half-dozen teams and how those reasons might influence the playoff chase.
Defensive Shortcomings
The Buffalo Bills, currently facing a pivotal moment in their season, contend with an undersized defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA. This is your classic IBG vulnerability, especially against teams that are running the ball really well. Buffalo’s difficulty in the run defense department has fans and analysts alike concerned. This is an important problem because playoff contenders know that a punishing ground game can be used to drain the clock and establish tempo.
Other groups have absolutely flourished on third down. Success stories include the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams. These squads already have a rep for making life-and-death notes on drives, and they’ve earned it with lethal precision and killer instinct. Whether it’s by air or by ground, their success on third down has been key in extending drives and racking up points. As Championship contenders like the Bills gear up for inevitable matchups with these offensive juggernauts, their defensive deficiencies will be further exposed.
The 49ers are in the midst of a notable time of struggle. With star players Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams lost for the season due to torn ACLs. Their absence begs the question of how the team will replace their ability to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks and continue a high level of defensive production. The loss of key defensive talents often impacts a team’s cohesion and game plan, making their playoff journey even more precarious.
Offensive Challenges and Quarterback Performances
What’s remarkable though, is that if some teams are stars on offense, other teams are the complete opposite. The Carolina Panthers’ offense hasn’t been able to get anything going in the last few weeks. Their offensive line is currently ranked 30th in pass block win rate at 55.4% and dead last in run block win rate at 68.3%. These shortcomings make it tough for the unit to get into a groove on offense, putting even more strain on their young quarterback.
High in this talent desert, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence rises like a mirage on the horizon. He is the best he has ever been right now. He’s great at creating plays when the play breaks down and he orchestrates the offense like a veteran. Opponents of the Jaguars now need to play on their toes against Lawrence’s dual-threat capabilities, giving him the ability to flip games in his favor.
Coincidentally, both Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts have turned into two of the league’s top quarterbacks when facing the blitz. It’s their poise under duress that lets their murderous offenses exploit coverage breakdowns to deadly effect. Hurts is 16th in DVOA against zone coverage and 13th against man coverage. Yet, despite those numbers, he remains a key concern on third down, adding to the Eagles’ great effectiveness with their passing attack.
This has been a surprising season for the play of Lamar Jackson. He’s actually ranked dead last in both passing DVOA and EPA per dropback from inside the 20-yard line. These numbers spell a bad omen for Jackson, since having high efficiency in scoring situations is the hallmark of any playoff-bound club. Without improvement in these areas, the Baltimore Ravens will continue to be caught with their pants down in the game’s most important situations.
Pressure Rates and Defensive Strengths
Defensive metrics show dramatic differences between teams in contention for the playoffs. The Denver Broncos rank 29th in pass rush win rate at 30% and dead last in pressure rate at 25%. Those numbers spell a complete failure to pressure enemy quarterbacks, the key ingredient to any successful defensive plan in today’s game. Without that ability to completely shut down opposing passers, the Broncos will fall short in keeping up with some of the very best high-flying offenses.
Teams such as the Pittsburgh Steelers are dominant on defense. They currently sit at the fifth best team in pass rush win rate. That only scratches the surface of their ability to wreak havoc in enemy backfields. This strength proves all the more important under the pressures of playoff competition when each possession is all that matters.
The Houston Texans are 31st in pass block win rate (54.2%) and 30th in run block win rate (68.7%) since Week 10. They rank fourth best in the league at defending short passes at 5 yards or fewer downfield. It’s been their defensive strength that’s reignited the exciting run they’ve made to the playoffs. They are still focused on making up for their offensive line’s deficiencies.
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