As the NFL season tracks into Week 6, analysts are starting to scramble to predict the draft order. Why, they’re even planning for the 2026 NFL Draft already! The Cleveland Browns are the simplest example. With a few other teams with worse records having some unknown chances of top-10 picks. This article takes a look at what’s standing and what’s probable, giving you a little insight about how these various elements will come into play as the draft unfolds.
The Cleveland Browns currently hold an average draft position of 20.7, reflecting a mixed performance this season. Their odds of getting a top-10 pick are even worse, with a measly 7.8% FPI chance. The team’s inability to achieve any semblance of consistency on the field results in a bleak outlook for success. This trend would severely limit their chances to get a better draft pick.
Teams with First-Round Picks
Beyond the lottery itself, perhaps the biggest factor influencing how the draft order ends up shaking out is how many teams there are with multiple first-round picks. One such team is still riding high with a stunning 23.4% chance at landing first overall in next year’s draft. This team has a wicked 77.2% FPI shot of getting a top-five pick. With such high ceilings, they loom as obvious choices to seize high-value draft picks.
The implications of having two first-round picks go beyond just getting a better pick. This team has 95.9% odds of finishing with a top-10 pick—the best odds in the NBA. They’re uniquely situated to make a potentially franchise-altering haul of moves in short order. Talent evaluation may be the most important aspect to determining the future success or failure of any franchise. This is an impressive and forward-looking team that is obviously positioned to take advantage of that opportunity.
Other Team Probabilities
It’s always the teams that have more than one first round pick that take center stage. We shouldn’t forget about other franchises who are in the hunt for privileged positions. For example, Team 3 only has a 13.7% chance of getting the first overall pick, putting them at a clear disadvantage in a competitive environment. Their FPI drives the absurdly good 63.7% odds of them netting a top-five pick. They have an amazing 91.2% chance of getting a top-10 pick.
Team 4 has much tougher odds, with just a 1.3% chance of winning the first overall pick. Their FPI shows a 20.7% chance of ending up in the top five. It further illustrates a 58.9% probability of getting a top-10 pick. These percentages exemplify how wild the draft order can get. Every team is looking to improve their position as the year goes on.
For example, Team 5 would have only a 7.5% chance to land the first pick. They do have an excellent 49.6% FPI chance at a top-five pick and a whopping 84.0% FPI chance at a top-10 selection. The competitive landscape goes to demonstrate just how even these teams truly are. They have zoomed past the rest of the regular season with grace and confidence.
The Cleveland Browns’ Position
The Cleveland Browns are once again the talk of the league. Even with an average draft position of 20.7, they need to greatly exceed expectations in order to even have a prayer at a top-10 pick. With only a 7.8% FPI chance, the Browns may find themselves looking at fewer elite prospects come draft day unless they can turn around their season.
Which means their performance will greatly impact their own draft standing. It would be fun to see it affect trades and turn other teams’ boards as they get ready for their picks. The dynamics of the draft order will continually evolve over the coming weeks and months as teams assess their strengths and weaknesses.
The Cincinnati Bengals, the other notable exception to this trend, are at an average draft position of 8.1 right now. Their current placement means that they are doing better than some or most of their peers. If they continue on the path they’re currently on, they’ll be scaring off some of the most promising talent.
Leave a Reply