Through the first few weeks of the 2023 NFL season, creating a confusing and frustrating timeline for perhaps the league’s most consistently dominant teams. The Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Houston Texans all find themselves with disappointing 5-5 records as they enter Week 12. As these teams fight their performance problems, playoff dreams are at stake. Real life…which means they are still desperately looking for a solution to write their seasons’ happy endings.
If anything, for the Ravens, those challenges are magnified. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is currently experiencing a two-game slump, completing only 57.4% of his throws for an average of 184.5 yards passing. He’s been under duress a great deal in the red zone, as he’s been sacked seven times in high-leverage situations. This has contributed to Baltimore’s drastic drop in red zone efficiency, plummeting from the NFL’s best last season to a troubling 28th this year.
Ravens’ Red Zone Woes
In fact, mostly awful Baltimore red zone woes have wrecked what’s been an otherwise disappointing campaign for the Ravens to this point. In 2021, the Ravens had the fourth-highest red zone offense efficiency at 74.2%. This turned them into a scary adversary each time they stepped foot inside the 20-yard line. This year, that number has dropped all the way down to a paltry 47.2%.
The rationale goes beyond just Jackson’s individual performance. The offensive line’s struggles to protect Jackson consistently has resulted in missed scoring opportunities. That’s why the unit ranks 22nd in the league, averaging a mere 20.8 points per game. The difference is even more pronounced in goal-to-go situations. Tennessee running back Derrick Henry has been non-existent, rushing for a mere 17 yards on 19 attempts.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh acknowledged the precarious position of his team, stating, “Our heads are just above water. We’re breathing.” This feeling comes very close to summarizing the mood around this Ravens team as they try to find their way through a brutal season.
Defensive Turnaround Sparks Hope
Beyond the offensive obstacles, there’s reason for optimism for the Ravens. Their defense has turned the season around by holding opponents to under 20 points in each of their four consecutive victories. This unexpected defensive gatekeeping has inserted some hope as they step back into the thick of things in a jaggedly close AFC.
As Coach Harbaugh candidly pointed, the key to raising your rank from 24th up is to start winning games. “What matters is, however the standings look, I know what improves the standings is winning,” he remarked.
As they prepare for their next match-up, Baltimore’s defense could be key in supporting Jackson and the struggling offense as they seek to regain form.
Implications for other AFC Teams
The situation is not unique to Baltimore. This means that the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans share that disappointing 5-5 record and currently sit outside of the playoff picture. If the season ended today, all four of these teams would miss the postseason.
As we head into Week 12, each of those three teams are now chasing from behind in their divisions. The Texans are dealt an additional challenge as they prepare to take on their first road opponent in the Buffalo Bills. They’ll be doing so without rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, still in concussion protocol and set to miss his third consecutive game.
On the other side, the Ravens hope to improve their 63.9% playoff probability per ESPN’s FPI. Their performance in the games to come will determine whether they are able to do so. You can check one off against one of their division rivals, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Jackson has an outstanding 7-2 record against these schools, including playoffs.
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