For Aston Villa, it’s an important week that could define their entire season. They must prepare for back-to-back tricky away fixtures at Chelsea and Arsenal. Over the past month, the Villans have been unbeatable at home, reeling off ten consecutive victories at Villa Park. They’ve won nine of their last ten Premier League matches. The next set of fixtures represents a massive undertaking. How they perform in these friendlies could potentially reveal the secret key to unlocking the rest of this season.
And while they’ve gotten results lately, Aston Villa’s underlying performances have had many scratching their heads. If results were determined by Expected Goals (xG), the team would find itself in 15th place in the Premier League. At face value, this alarming statistic signals a troubling contrast between their real-world outcomes and the performance data that drives them. In fact, Aston Villa has lost the first half in each of their last five away games, a sign of a slow-starting squad. Resilience has been the name of their game lately. They’ve come back from multiple deficits to win each of their last three road contests.
With the next two matches against Championship opposition, this will be a big test of Aston Villa’s promotion aspirational fortunes. Their opening game will be against Chelsea, who have struggled for form this season, though the challenge will still be a tall one. In only three days’ time, Villa will host Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. This is a club that has the most points in England’s Premier League table right now. Villa has shown they can compete with Arsenal, having matched them well in their previous meeting in Birmingham just weeks ago.
With Aston Villa sitting just three points off their league leading rivals, it makes these fixtures even more thrilling. The results of their latest performances indicate that a closer examination is overdue. Across their previous ten Premier League matches, the club has won the expected goals battle just one time. That leads to questions about whether their results are sustainable.
Morgan Rogers has proven to be an influential signing for Aston Villa. Now he’s bagged three in his last three starts in the Premier League too! Remarkably, the team has netted these goals at an xG amount of only 0.1. This goes to show their over-reliance on difficult, expert shooting as opposed to creating more high-quality chances themselves.
“We feel like we can win every game,” – Morgan Rogers
That confidence is going to be vital as Aston Villa look to negotiate starts in this intimidating run of fixtures. Now, pundits are starting to wonder if this reliance on individual brilliance can last. As Gary Neville said afterwards, “I never thought they played well at any stage of the game, that was way below their level.” His remarks highlight that Aston Villa need to improve their collective team play. They can’t rely on individual superstars to carry them.
Their next two matches, at home to Chelsea then away at Arsenal, are likely to be a litmus test for Aston Villa’s season. A string of impressive outings might prove them to be bona fide factors as we head deeper into this year. On the flip side, underwhelming outcomes might lead to a serious reevaluation of their strategy and strategy in the future.
As the season progresses, Aston Villa’s ability to translate their home dominance into away success will be crucial for their aspirations. Fans and analysts can hardly contain their excitement. They’re eager to find out if the team can build on its winning momentum and continue rising up the Premier League table.
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