The NFL season so far has offered up some mesmerizing offensive performances — both amazing and abysmal. Notably, the Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos have emerged as the two worst offenses in three-and-out rates this century, each maintaining a win percentage of at least .750. In a league where efficient offense is paramount, these numbers beg the question—how sustainable can their success be?
The Tennessee Titans had it even worse, ranking dead last in 2022. In fact, their three-and-out rates were worse than both the Eagles’ and the Broncos’ last season. Though understated at first glance, this trend speaks to a growing concern for offensive efficiency across the league. Yet it has huge ramifications for those teams fighting for playoff spots.
Offensive Efficiency Under Scrutiny
That’s why quarterback Justin Herbert’s recent increase in play-action rate is worth noting. It fell to 17.5% and 21.7% in his past two games, while he averaged 29.5% on the season through the first nine weeks. This reduction in play-action use is an indication of either a strategic shift or an effort to counteract external pressures from defenses.
Sam Darnold’s performance has drawn attention. On one specific day, he completed 57.8%, but with flashes of brilliance accompanied by a disappointing 2023 campaign. Darnold’s ability to avoid sacks has been noteworthy, as he and fellow quarterback Bo Nix have outperformed other players, including Kyren Williams, in this critical area.
Despite these individual efforts, the Kansas City Chiefs struggle with an explosive rush rate of only 5.0%, tying them with the Titans for the worst in football. It’s this dearth of offensive explosiveness that leads to questions about their long-term sustainability as true contenders.
“Why are all the NFL teams this year massive frauds? I don’t trust a single team.” – From Alex
Defensive Challenges and Team Adjustments
The 2024 regular season certainly hasn’t been kind to signal callers under duress. Darnold, who made the start against the Rams, suffered a 44.8% pressure rate despite only being hit seven times. This number perfectly describes the bad, nasty, creative defenses teams are spinning to confuse and vex quarterbacks.
Kyren Williams proved his talents in a similar showstopper. He did finish with 76 yards against Seattle in the first quarter alone, surpassing any other running back’s total against the Seahawks all year. Seattle re-adjusted in a hurry, holding him to only 15 yards on his last six runs. The new analytics on that game showed just one explosive run and a lackluster 33% success rate on the day.
As teams learn what works best with their offensive and defensive strategies, mid-season adjustments are necessary. The Chicago Bears are doing all they can to improve their offense. They’re turning out four new starters on their offensive line, including two free-agent signings and two rookie draft picks.
Evaluating Future Prospects
And though certain players had phenomenal games, many eyes should be pointed at the alarming inability of certain teams to execute their gameplans in the league. For example, Williams ranks fifth in total scramble EPA, showing upside that goes against the flow of his team’s poor performance. Against the run, Jacksonville is 24th in defensive success rate. It’s ranked 13th in expected points, indicating a disconnect between how well the defense is playing and how much it should be scoring.
Darnold opened the season as a remarkably accurate quarterback, on pace for some historic numbers. Once pressure set in, and the pocket broke down, his play went off a cliff. This kind of inconsistency is emblematic of much all the issues that are making many of the league offenses offensive.
“The single best defensive performance against Matthew Stafford in a Rams jersey.” – Next Ben Stats
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