The 2023–2024 NBA season is here, and we couldn’t be more excited! Teams are still winning and losing every day to find out who will make the playoff cut. In a league increasingly dominated by competitive imbalance, a tiered system has emerged that almost wholly dictates each team’s level of success. The Muddled Middle features teams that are simply too good to tank. They don’t have the juice to truly compete for a championship. On the other hand, the Play-in Dreamers include teams with low playoff prospects, while the Barren for Darryn tier focuses on rebuilding franchises eyeing top draft prospects.
As teams navigate through the early months of the season, several narratives are shaping the landscape, influencing how fans and analysts perceive each team’s trajectory. Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey’s “5% rule” emphasizes that teams with a mere 5% chance of winning a championship should prioritize winning games instead of waiting for future prospects. This philosophy epitomizes the stark contrasts between squads pursuing short term glory. Most importantly, it puts the focus on those who are in the midst of a rebuild.
The Muddled Middle
The Muddled Middle tier is filled with squads trapped in an awful bind. These franchises are doing well enough to not be draft cellar-dwellers. They’re still short on the talent necessary to truly compete for a championship. The Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks all fit this description. Similar to each of the four sides, they’ve shown signs all year but are otherwise erratic.
As an example, the Minnesota Timberwolves are currently faced with questions about their point guard depth and overall defense. Even with an abundance of elite talent on their roster, inconsistent performances have prevented them from being able to establish themselves as true contenders. The Atlanta Hawks find themselves in a precarious situation. Their mediocrity at 3-4 doesn’t square with the stated desire to compete for a playoff position.
To further compound the pressure, as these teams keep pushing toward exceeding expectations, they’ll have key decisions on their day-to-day lineups and strategies to make. Historically, the Lakers and Spurs have been the outliers in the league. This is most easily seen by looking at the Steelers and Jaguars — the two best offenses and worst defenses in the league. How well they’re able to fix these inequities will be the true measure of their success this season.
The Play-in Dreamers
Unlike the Muddled Middle, the Play-in Dreamers tier is made up of teams that should have no expectation of contending for the playoffs. These entities have either been cursed with the plague of health, or their star-studded rosters have fizzled, killing their hopes of a late-season playoff push. Teams like Utah, Washington, Brooklyn, and Indiana are currently looking ahead to the lottery as they navigate through challenging seasons.
Utah has been bitten by the injury bug, with some critical injuries that have derailed the Utes this season. Consistency has been the biggest challenge for both Washington and Brooklyn. Indiana’s extensive rebuilding efforts indicate that they are not as interested in contending for the playoffs immediately. The overriding priority for these teams looks to be more on seeing what young talent they can develop and get ready for next season.
The general feeling between these franchises is one of calm. It’s easy to understand the possibility of fans turning irate when their teams fell and failed. The future growth lies in developing that mission-driven leadership from within,” says FCYO’s Benso. This broad strategic outlook is in keeping with Morey’s 5% rule. Unlike our local teams, these institutions prioritize creating the bedrock of long-term national competitiveness over mortgaging their future for short-lived playoff runs.
The Barren for Darryn Tier
The teams currently undergoing major rebuilds. All of these teams are seizing the opportunity to pad their fortunes with top draft picks from 2017-18 draft. This tier is the heavy lifting in making the strategic shift to long-term success as opposed to short-term outcome. The franchises within this group are focused on laying the groundwork for potential stars who can contribute significantly in years to come.
So Cleveland Cavaliers fans must be feeling just as deflated. Their squad is reeling from a brutal November, particularly in the shadow cast by the great start of last season. This facet could end up playing in their favor in the long run, as they scour the draft for the best available prospects. The more they invest in well developing young players, the more they’ll find themselves standing at the top of this list in coming seasons.
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have struggled mightily with shooting consistency. They have yet to get rolling from deep, hitting just 34% of their three-pointers. This scenario has put them at a disadvantage to achieve short term success. More optimistically, though, it has provided them a significant opportunity to seek new talent and prepare for a more competitive future.
As these rebuilding teams focus on their long-term goals, they must remain vigilant in identifying talent that can elevate their franchises in the future. If they’re willing to play the long game, they will position themselves to succeed when they do eventually find themselves back in contention.
Contenders and Upper Tier Teams
In the NBA’s newly created haves and have-nots tier, a group of eight to ten teams have formed the strongest possible challengers to this year’s championship. The Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, and Miami Heat form the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. Each of these franchises possesses a blend of experience and talent that positions them well for a deep playoff run.
Most notably, Giannis Antetokounmpo has proven to be a series-changer, a true overwhelming talent in any series that he’s involved with. His presence gives the Milwaukee Bucks a significant advantage over opponents until potentially facing off against other top contenders in the Finals. Not far behind, the Celtics and 76ers present imposing rosters that could prove crucial in determining playoff ramifications.
The Denver Nuggets have demonstrated impressive depth and record early in the season, which could lead them to claim one of the top seeds in the Western Conference. Their weak devices allegedly outclassed the competition in the early goings. Instead, they’re able to postpone potential rematches against daunting challengers such as the Golden State Warriors or LA Clippers.
Both the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks are entering make-or-break time for their slim playoff hopes. Their futures are in no way guaranteed, and every game matters. They could have either had home-court advantage the first round or even completely missed the play-in tournament. Their performances in upcoming games will be critical in determining their postseason paths.
Looking Ahead
As the NBA season progresses, each team will continue to navigate its unique circumstances. Whether striving for contention or focusing on future growth. The different levels show how each franchise is handling their respective seasons with clear, contrasting plans that reflect where they’re at in the now.
The Muddled Middle will have to get past their contradictions and figure out how to ratchet up their mutual quality. At the same time, Play-in Dreamers should focus on grooming young talent and hoping for high draft picks. Rebuilding franchises should keep patience as a virtue in mind as they plan to improve in subsequent seasons.
Leave a Reply