Smith’s time at quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders has been a tale of hope and misfortune. Through the first five games of the season, Smith has already thrown nine interceptions, also a league high. This lackluster performance ties for the most times a Raiders quarterback has been intercepted over this same stretch, with Jim Plunkett in 1982. Smith is on pace to end the year with 3,998 yards and 20 touchdowns. His shocking 31 picks are raising questions about his future and viability in the new offensive system.
Smith isn’t the only player working to revamp a high-octane Raiders offense overseen by new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. It’s been a tumultuous transition. Smith is inconsistent with his quick-hitting throws and tends to overhold when he needs a speedy release under pressure. He averages only 2.97 seconds to release, which is fourth-most in the NFL. This remarkable velocity has not turned into on-field success.
During a recent win against the Indianapolis Colts, Smith displayed his maturity by going 24 for 34 passing. He had an extraordinary completion rate of 70.6% and accumulated 362 yards. That performance came with only one TD and one INT, leading to a relatively lowly QB rating of 67.8. Smith’s difficulties were most evident at key moments. This was particularly the case during Las Vegas’ second journey into the red zone, which compounded fortune’s adverse effect on him. He completed a 56 yard touchdown pass to Albert Okwuegbunam, in which he was under double coverage. Safety Nick Cross swooped in and missed the ball.
With these and other obstacles in play, Smith was tested under fire — but proved more than equal to the task. He threw nine passes of over 20 yards in one game, matching the most by a Raiders quarterback since at least 1991. He’s been miserable when faced with Cover 2 this year — ranking 34th out of 35 qualifiers in EPA per attempt. In reality, he’s passed for all of 186 yards and five picks and a passer rating of a meager 44.2.
After he threw his second interception of the game, Smith couldn’t contain his aggravation. With his helmet in hand, he brought it down hard on the turf as he stomped off in disgust to the sideline. He reflected on his performance, stating, “I never want to make excuses for anything. I don’t believe in that.” He acknowledged his need to improve, emphasizing the importance of learning from mistakes: “I’m aware of the process, and I know exactly what I’m doing out there. Catching up to that in terms of eyeballing guys making plays on me, and I’ve just got to be smarter with the ball in those instances.”
Whatever the outcome, Smith is charging into this difficult season with clear eyes. He is clearly committed to developing great chemistry with his new teammates, including rookie wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. He remarked on their relationship: “I mean, this is the NFL….I got a rookie receiver. We’ve got to develop them. We’ve got to learn. And it’s not Dont’e’s fault; it’s not anyone’s fault; it’s life.”
Kelly noted that timing is an essential aspect of their offensive success: “There’s a timing aspect to all those things, so it’s just the more familiar we get with him.” This small shrug really encapsulates all the growing pains that might come with a rookie quarterback-coach dynamic.
Smith’s shown he can get it done with a passer rating of 109.2 and a 52.7% completion percentage on passes 10+ yards downfield from 2022-2024. His first term record otherwise remains woefully inadequate. This is reflected in his current quarterback rating of 30.3, the third-worst of any starting quarterback in the league.
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