Sky Sports’ most recent rights renewal saw the broadcaster extend its commitment to showing 215 live Premier League matches, beginning in the 2025-26 season. The league is definitely increasing in popularity on the ground! This increased access and availability of coverage provides fans with more opportunities to experience all the exciting, fast-paced action of the highest level of football.
One of the really interesting things that we’ll be able to showcase this season is some great trends around scoring patterns. Most significantly, the average goals per game just after international breaks over the last two seasons is only 2.35. To put that in perspective, the overall average goals per game during the same period is 3.1. This contrast begs the question of what foreign responsibility has done to the performance and goal-scoring capabilities of national teams.
Anecdotal evidence indicates that a good portion of the matches following the first international break tend to be rather low scoring contests as well. This is an important and encouraging trend. In half of all Premier League games (20/40), the score was 0-0 at the break. This would indicate that teams might be struggling to get back in the groove post break. In fact, the average number of first-half goals scored per game during this time was just 0.9. We can infer from this exceedingly low number that teams will take a while to reacclimate to playing in the states.
As the season progresses, none will likely garner more media focus than the matchup between Burnley and Liverpool. Burnley has established a reputation for making games at Turf Moor scrappy and difficult for opponents, particularly for a Liverpool side that has enjoyed a perfect start to the season in terms of results but has struggled to find its flow. Scott Parker manages Burnley who are the second biggest home league game winning streak of 24. This remarkable record only adds to the nuance of Liverpool’s challenge.
Few places illustrate these dynamics better than betting markets. For the upcoming Burnley v Liverpool match, Sky Bet have the under 2.5 goal line priced up at 13/8. All-time, these two teams have battled in their last ten encounters combined for an average of 2.6 gpg. This record suggests a higher possibility of winning scores than what recent history would indicate.
Besides Burnley and Liverpool’s matchup, perhaps the biggest match to look forward to will be the face off between fierce rivals Manchester City and Manchester United. This fixture is expected to draw significant viewership and may prove pivotal in shaping the season’s narrative as both teams strive for dominance in the league.
That makes this season particularly enticing when it comes to the prospects of those teams promoted from the league below. Unlike last year, though, there’s an expectation that they will be more dangerous on their home turf. Last year Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester combined for five home victories. On the flip side, this year’s straphangers, including Burnley, have already ridden to four victories in their first five games!
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