With the NFL’s exciting new season fully underway, analysts are excitedly looking at standout player performances and team developments. This week, Seth Walder, ESPN’s famed statistician, uses his models to find plus-expected value bets across a number of matchups. None more so than the highly-anticipated matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Buffalo is opening the game as 6.5-point favorites.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen, the Bills’ quarterback, has exhibited incredible efficiency for a young player. Since the beginning of last season, he has the lowest interception rate at 0.9%. This statistic returns to his standing as perhaps the most important player for the Bills as they get ready to square off with the Jets. Allen did incredibly well against the Jets last season, averaging 0.46 EPA per dropback. This statistic shows just how big of a difference he could make in this matchup with defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit.
The Bills vs. Jets Showdown
The upcoming game between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets has generated considerable interest among fans and analysts alike. The Bills’ impressive success last season makes them likely to be one of the toughest draws. The Bills hold an 8.69 statistical edge and a Vegas point spread advantage of 6.5 points. They are now in position to build upon their successes and seize this opportunity.
Josh Allen’s ability to produce touchdowns while keeping interceptions at a minimum level possible price-protect Allen and make him a gigantic asset. Finishing with a 0.9% interception rate since the start of last season is all you need to know about his decision-making and execution while facing pressure. As he prepares for the Jets’ defense, Allen’s prior performance against them will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this game.
Beyond his newfound passing ability, the Jets’ defense will have to account for Allen’s predicted scrambling, which could create further complications. Analysts are excited for his mobility to help him extend plays. This dexterity will allow him to produce more chances and increase his overall impact on the pitch.
Player Performances to Watch
Aside from Allen, plenty of players on both sides are primed for a statement-making week. Just a week ago, Saquon Barkley put on a memorable show against the Cowboys in Week 1. He became a dynamic dual-threat running back, leaving every football fan speechless. On land and in the sky, he can do a lot of good. Creating a phenomenal building chemistry with his new teammates will be the key to his sustained success.
Daniel Jones is still in a work-in-progress mode with his offensive line and wideouts. From learning new schemes and play styles, his growth will be instrumental for the betterment of the entire offense. The challenges he’ll have to overcome may limit just how well he’s able to take advantage of weaknesses in defenses.
Matt Eberflus’s defensive strategy merits attention. Most impressively, he called zone coverage on an incredible 86% of QB dropbacks in Week 1. This strategic choice could significantly influence how opposing quarterbacks approach their games, especially against a well-prepared offense like the Bills.
Key Matchups and Tactical Considerations
As the breakdown goes on, some specific matchups become key to victory in Week 2. The Colts, facing a top-three pass defense following a game against a bottom-three unit, represent an intriguing case study for offensive strategies. Learning how to cope with this stark difference in defensive quality will be key to their trips deep into March.
Robinson’s impact in the passing game will make waves. With three targets and two receptions totaling 15 yards in Week 1, he remains an underutilized asset that could be pivotal if showcased effectively.
Cooper Kupp’s lackluster debut as a Seahawk casts doubt on how quickly or smoothly he’ll be integrated into the new offense. Analysts will be looking carefully as to how he adapts in the future and if he can bounce back to his previous form.
Add the sudden emergence of Kayshon Boutte as a vertical threat, and you have to significantly upgrade the game plans’ complexity this week. His speed alone to open up mismatches that opposing defenses have to find is absolutely going to be different. Tyrone Tracy Jr. ran 25 routes last week. This level of participation, despite missing the first two games, speaks to his potential to impact play designs offensively.
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