As the NFL season officially gets underway, the AFC’s power structure starts to establish itself after an exhilarating Week 1. The Kansas City Chiefs just put on an offensive mastery showcase. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt were a big part of the solution, combining for 41 carries and converting on five of 10 such attempts. On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens are still treading water, recently cow-tipping their way through a big change in their backfield. They understand the massive historical implications of opening up with an 0-2 record.
The Chiefs showed off their offensive blueprint with mixed packs, hitting on 12 and 13 sets excellently. Among the heroes was tight end Travis Kelce, who had the game-winning grab on a spectacular 37-yard touchdown reception from Aaron Rodgers, to beat the Los Angeles Chargers. They created this touchdown with a really well executed fake screen-and-go type of play. It’s a sign of the team’s deep commitment to strategic play calling. This method perfectly illustrates their desire to avoid chunk plays at all costs. By Week 2 of last season, those coulda/shoulda plays had blown their chance.
Chiefs’ Strategic Offense
The Chiefs’ offense has shown significant evolution since last year’s challenges. In Week 1—Pacheco’s first start, mind you—Pacheco and Hunt doubled down on running game leadership. Their success opened the field for a consistent passing attack. Their collaborative work led to a constant flow of high-quality, unpredictable scoring chances that left defenders scrambling. It’s made running the ball extremely important in keeping that balance and opening up those big play chances with motion.
Travis Kelce’s performance further illustrates the Chiefs’ offensive strategy. Few plays in 2021 better showcased his raw abilities than his 37-yard touchdown reception against the Chargers. It underscored the team’s remarkable surgical skill at reshaping their playbook. His phony screen-and-go move was the most eye-popping one, fooling defenders and giving Kelce space to exploit holes in the defense. This kind of scheming is absolutely critical for the Chiefs. They’re looking to become more proficient at generating explosive plays after last year’s failure.
The Chiefs are changing up their offensive game plan by using more varied personnel groupings. This strategy is more than just getting their season off on a positive note. When strong running meets powerful play calling, magic happens. This creates a powerful ripple effect for future editions of the game as they attempt to remain in the pool of the best teams in the league.
Ravens’ Backfield Transition
Unlike the Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens have zeroed in on an entirely different approach with their backfield. They moved on from veterans J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, replacing them with younger players like Hampton and Harris. They came to this conclusion in the expecting that speedier runners would provide more splash plays on the ground. That’s turned the gimmick into an important, er, staple of their offense.
Though the Ravens have often found themselves in the most favorable of circumstances this season – dominating win probability situations – they’ve failed to turn those scenarios into wins. Being ranked 27th in winning percentage with the game on the line in high-probability situations speaks to the desperation for change. Historically, Lamar Jackson has led the Ravens to five division titles in six healthy seasons, but recent performances have raised concerns regarding their late-game execution.
Overall the Ravens have ruled the fourth quarter with a win probability of 90%+ in 77 games. That impressive run of dominance translated into a staggering all-time record of 69-8. Yet evidence of their abysmal winning percentage in these scenarios indicates a fundamental gap here. As they continue into the season, they will have to adjust and create new tactics.
Historical Context of 0-2 Teams
In fact, historically, NFL teams that begin a season 0-2 are as good as sunk. These losses can severely dampen their ability to earn that coveted number one seed in their conference. Since 1978, just two teams have overcome that size of a deficit to win the top seed. Only the 1993 Dallas Cowboys and 2003 Philadelphia Eagles have been able to do so, an incredible feat.
This recent historical precedent adds extra pressure for teams such as the Ravens, who would be just as soon to skip a potentially painful slow start. The stakes are high and they should be as they hope to build on their current strengths while making substantial moves in areas where they need improvement. Now that the Chiefs have hit their stride and other top-tier teams continue to rise, each week’s matchups are crucial to determine potential playoff seeding.
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