The dynamics of NFL draft prospects are evolving, with a significant increase in player transfers reshaping the future of college football. In 2018, only 5.4% of players at the combine had transferred schools. Fast forward to this year, and that figure has risen dramatically to 38.2%. This surge in player movement reflects a broader trend where athletes are frequently switching schools, predominantly staying within the same level of competition. Despite the increased mobility, players from smaller schools face dwindling opportunities at the NFL combine, with no Division II or III prospects invited in the past two years.
From 2016 to 2021, an average of 20.5 small schoolers received combine invitations annually. However, in recent years, this number has declined sharply. In contrast, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have found success in drafting talents from smaller schools, such as former guard Ali Marpet from D-II Hobart College and guard Alex Cappa from D-II Humboldt State. The trend raises questions about the future viability of small school prospects in the NFL draft.
Grey Zabel's experience highlights the challenges faced by players from lower divisions. Once a promising high school athlete with Power 5 offers, Zabel became wary of trusting transfer offers after losing those opportunities. He chose to stay with Bison football, a program he describes as player-driven and process-focused. This decision underscores the importance of loyalty and belief in one's team values.
"It's not just me. There's other very talented players that are getting tampered with every single year, that our guys are being [enticed] to transfer elsewhere…. It's tough for a lot of these guys to turn down that type of money. But in the long run, you just got to fall back to what you believe in." – Raiders general manager John Spytek
Zabel's program witnessed seven players transferring up this offseason, while four players moved in from lower levels. This movement indicates that talented athletes are increasingly seeking opportunities to showcase their skills on larger stages.
In the current draft class, notable quarterbacks like Miami's Cam Ward and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders are part of the 2025 transfer group. Scouts appreciate players who have remained with a single program, considering frequent transfers a potential red flag if they occur three to four times at the Power 4 level.
"The Khalil Macks of the world [played four years at Buffalo of the MAC before going No. 5 in the 2014 draft] will be relics of the NFL drafts past." – an analytics staffer for an NFL team
"With the money you get in the portal now — not sure we'll ever see another top 10 pick out of an FCS or lower program again." – an analytics staffer for an NFL team
Zabel holds his role as captain during his senior year in high regard, seeing it as one of the highest honors within his program.
"It's something I hold really close to my heart, being a captain my senior year, because it's one of the biggest honors you can get in the program." – Grey Zabel
He emphasizes that leadership is earned through dedication and consistent effort.
"It's one of those deals where you just don't come in and be a captain right away your first or second year, you got to put in the sweat equity and continue to prove you're a leader in how hard you worked on the field, off the field." – Grey Zabel
The shifting landscape raises questions about loyalty and financial incentives in college football.
"Maybe those guys transfer up now. Maybe they don't. I give a lot of respect to the guys that stick it out with the school they're at and take a smaller NIL deal than they could have gotten if they would have transferred to the big one. There's a loyalty and a quality to that human that really stands out. And there's a couple guys in this draft this year that had the same opportunity." – Raiders general manager John Spytek
Transfers present both opportunities and challenges for athletes. Moving schools can expose players to new schemes and competition levels, requiring them to adapt quickly.
"You never know what's going to happen when you switch schemes, play against different competition, and then have different coaches who are asking you to do different things." – a Group of 5 personnel director
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