Arsenal Football Club is grappling with a pressing striker dilemma as the team navigates its attacking woes. Last season, the Gunners set a club record by scoring 91 goals in the Premier League. However, this offensive prowess has been overshadowed by a troubling trend: eight games across all competitions where they failed to find the back of the net, resulting in seven defeats. As the pressure mounts on manager Mikel Arteta, questions arise about the team's ability to convert chances into goals and the potential need for fresh talent in the attacking department.
Arteta’s concerns regarding the lack of firepower were underscored after a recent Carabao Cup match against Newcastle, where he lamented the side's inability to capitalize on opportunities. “That is what you have when you have the real quality up front,” he remarked, highlighting the critical need for clinical finishing in his squad. The team’s current strikers, including Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, have underperformed their expected goals significantly, according to Opta's xG model. Both players have scored roughly five goals fewer than anticipated based on the quality of chances they have created.
Despite the overall scoring success of last season, Arsenal's inconsistency in front of goal this term has raised eyebrows. The club ranks among the lowest in the Premier League, with a notable percentage of matches resulting in one or fewer goals. Specifically, Arsenal has recorded seven games this season where they managed only a single goal, a stark contrast to eventual champions Manchester City, who had just four such games throughout their campaign.
Arsenal's No. 9s have consistently underperformed their expected goals over the past three seasons. This trend has sparked discussions about potential new signings to bolster the squad's attacking options. Among the players linked with a move to Arsenal are Matheus Cunha of Wolves and Bryan Mbeumo from Brentford. Both players have demonstrated an ability to influence close games significantly.
Cunha, in particular, has emerged as a standout option, showcasing impressive statistics with a total of 24 goals from an expected goals tally of 15.6 since the start of the 2022/23 season. This performance gives him one of the highest positive differentials among Premier League players with at least 15 goals. His knack for converting chances could be precisely what Arsenal needs to address its front-line struggles.
Meanwhile, Alexander Isak from Newcastle has also caught the attention of Arsenal’s management. With nearly four goals more than expected and having netted 44 Premier League goals from an expected goals tally of 40.45 over the last three seasons, Isak's consistency makes him an appealing target. His recent performance against Arsenal, where he scored his 10th goal in nine games, further solidifies his reputation as a prolific striker.
Isak’s value is estimated at £150 million, presenting a significant barrier for any potential transfer. Additionally, Newcastle holds little incentive to part ways with their star player as he plays a pivotal role in their aspirations for silverware and Champions League qualification.
Arteta's comments reflect an awareness of these challenges. After a match against Newcastle, he stated, “I don't think he created or had any big chances but he was involved in both goals unfortunately with the two times that he had the ball in the box.” This highlights the need for forwards who can not only create but also convert opportunities into goals.
As Arsenal continues its campaign, the club's decision-makers must carefully consider their options to enhance their attacking capabilities. The combination of underperforming forwards and the persistent inability to score in crucial matches places Arteta under increased scrutiny as fans and analysts alike await decisive action.
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